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Business and Startups

Place to discuss anything and everything about business and startups. From economics, to investments to startup gossip, to technology et al.

Vikram Sethi , Aug, 11 2016

The unprecedented aging crisis will soon hit China and India economically


China today boasts roughly five workers for every retiree. By 2040, this highly desirable ratio will have collapsed to about 1.6 to 1. From the start of this century to its midway point, the median age in China will go from under 30 to about 46, making China one of the older societies in the world. At the same time, the number of Chinese older than 65 is expected to rise from roughly 100 million in 2005 to more than 329 million in 2050—more than the combined populations of Germany, Japan, France, and Britain.

China today boasts roughly five workers for every retiree. By 2040, this highly desirable ratio will have collapsed to about 1.6 to 1. From the start of this century to its midway point, the median age in China will go from under 30 to about 46, making China one of the older societies in the world. At the same time, the number of Chinese older than 65 is expected to rise from roughly 100 million in 2005 to more than 329 million in 2050—more than the combined populations of Germany, Japan, France, and Britain.

Adarsh , Aug, 11 2016


Theres simply no way to employ the entirety of Indias workforce in modern enterprises because the entire world could not consume the output that would result. Its really already come to this; there are still close to 400 million people in the rural workforce or informal economy who simply cannot be well-integrated into the formal, urban economy because theres no demand for an expansion of productive capacity. Domestic reforms could increase demand by attacking the root causes of the extremely high savings rate of the middle and upper-middle classes, but this would still only bring maybe half of that number into play. They would still be left with 200 million workers and their dependents outside the system and seeing little benefit from the economic growth. Moreover, they have by no means fully integrated labor-saving and productivity-increasing technologies into their industries, so individual productivity is going to do nothing but rise.
Theres simply no way to employ the entirety of Indias workforce in modern enterprises because the entire world could not consume the output that would result. Its really already come to this; there are still close to 400 million people in the rural workforce or informal economy who simply cannot be


Saara , Aug, 11 2016


China has grown old before it has grown rich. This was predicted but is now coming true in spades. This is very much in contra distinction to Japan which has grown old and rich, but sufficiently rich to go down a path of "graceful stagnation" where growth is slow and old people stay niggardly in their spending because of longevity. The Chinese are not sufficiently wealthy on the whole to resort to "graceful stagnation" but the scope for growth is troubled by the major contradiction of a regime which wants to exercise control to "maintain stability and order" and a market driven principle that demands disruption and change in order to break into let alone out of the "middle income trap." The low hanging fruit has been picked, and the crooked backs of an aging society will not find it easy to reach for the higher hanging fruit.
China has grown old before it has grown rich. This was predicted but is now coming true in spades. This is very much in contra distinction to Japan which has grown old and rich, but sufficiently rich to go down a path of "graceful stagnation" where growth is slow and old people stay niggardly in the


Paras , Aug, 11 2016


Typical pro-immigration propaganda.In reality India is bursting at the seams with excess people, running critically short on basic life-sustaining resources (clean air, water, unpolluted land), and racing to cram its population into grim hyper-megacities of cheaply-built concrete tower blocks. Falling population will be a Godsend for India, not something to be feared. If it fell 75% or more, only the very highest elites might be worse off while virtually the entire population would have far more resources per capita and would be far better off economically, psychologically, and in terms of physical health.
Typical pro-immigration propaganda.In reality India is bursting at the seams with excess people, running critically short on basic life-sustaining resources (clean air, water, unpolluted land), and racing to cram its population into grim hyper-megacities of cheaply-built concrete tower blocks. Falli


Alice , Aug, 11 2016


Were China not to have reigned in its exponential population growth, the economic growth the world lauds is unlikely to have happened, since the Party would have had to focus on maintaining internal security in face of regular food insecurity. We cannot forget about robotics. I am not speaking of automation here, an entirely different technology, but a.i. machines. I would be willing to bet my bottom Renminbi that China is pouring money into funding this, given its realization of where things are headed. None of East Asia could be labeled as an immigrant-friendly culture with the sole exception of Singapore, which in any case was a heterogeneous society before being welcoming to migrants bringing skills. Even there, though, citizenship is a far harder road to travel than simpler residency, Finally, to equate the demographic hurdle with belligerency in the S China Sea strikes me as wishful thinking verging on the ridiculous. China has always seen itself as a regional, if not global power, and it is now keen to stretch its muscles to see what, exactly, is the opposition. That it was quiescent for the past few centuries doesnt mean it shall not be asserting regional dominance now and in the near future. The more salient question is whether such dominance is "bad" for the world order.
Were China not to have reigned in its exponential population growth, the economic growth the world lauds is unlikely to have happened, since the Party would have had to focus on maintaining internal security in face of regular food insecurity. We cannot forget about robotics. I am not speaking of au


Rohit pande , Have a view on many things but happy to thras Aug, 11 2016


It cant be a optimistic projection. Aging population, technology eating jobs, stretched environment, bored millenials, collapse of family strictures including caring of old people. One shudders to think how it would all play out together.